The Future of the Future

I hate to repeat myself (not really) but in light of the attached article I think it is appropriate. As you will see, all the fears of robots driving the population into the unemployment lines is clearly outlined. It certainly adds to my conjure about the future of the American work force. 

Most current discussions of retraining the unemployed and preparing the youth for new careers seems to center on developing STEM skills. Based on the attached article even these skills will likely be supplanted by robots equipped with A.I.

We have already seen cashiers replaced by self checkout robots, bank tellers replaced by ATMs, materials handlers at Amazon replaced by automatic merchandise selectors, draftsmen replaced by CAD programs, computers and the Internet substituted for teachers and the list goes on.  Based on Moore's Law the time in which complete robotization will be achieved becomes shorter and shorter (note- Moore's Law tells us that computing power doubles every 18 months and so far it seems to be correct). It appears that no one and no career or profession is or will be immune.

And what should young people be learning to ensure a place in the future workforce? How should the unemployed be retrained so that they don't wind up re-unemployed?

One might suggest that only the trades will be safe havens - but I'm not so sure. The use of nail guns and engineered lumber has allowed a smaller crew to do the same amount of work in a shorter time than  just a decade or two ago. 

Plumber's now use PVC pipe and snap on fittings again reducing the time to complete a job.

Electrical work can now easily be done by the homeowner in many cases by using remote, wireless switches and relays. The result is fewer job for electrical tradesmen. The list goes on and gets longer by the day.

The recent murders in Paris and California helped to bring all of this to mind once again. I have read just recently that one of the greatest recruiting tools used by ISIS is the offer of a job (as shitty as it is I guess they think it is better than no job) to the myriad of Middle Eastern unemployed youth. From what I've read theyoffer good pay (from oil money) and benefits besides!

Based on this observation, what can we look forward to in America when most jobs have been eliminated? 

Maybe it's time for our politicians to start addressing this issue rather than just attacking each other at their sideshow events??

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 Here my previous article on robots and employment in you are interested. Below is the article I made mention of in my opening line. 

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8/14/15

A collision between robotization and student loan debt is inevitability on course. Tens of thousands of students are now being prepared for jobs that will soon be replaced by robots and A.I.(owned by corporations and the wealthy). An even sadder part is that they are incurring trillions of dollars of debt to become eligible for the non-existent jobs of the future. (See my post  - http://teachersdontsuck.blogspot.com/2015/07/i-robots.html). 

Not only will they have the prospect of few available jobs but also the burden of huge debt which they will have no means to repay. 

How will the housing market endure? Who will buy the new "driver-less" cars? Will the middle classes' disappearing act finally be completed?

Might these be bigger problems than even terrorism for the capitalist system in the not too distant future?

Even less encouraging is that I have heard few it any politicians addressing the likelihood of these probable circumstances and how they should be addressed?

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I Robots

Here is an insert from an article which I read in Sunday’s newspaper. It shows the likelihood of jobs being replaced by robots in the near future. I noticed that elementary school teaching was listed near the bottom.  Now I emphasized elementary because I believe the advent of robotization certainly does apply to secondary and college teaching. Upper level teachers are already being replaced by a robot called the Internet. I hear ads over and over about “On Line Degrees” from a plethora of colleges and universities. A single Internet course can serve dozens if not hundreds of student and be operated by just a few individual “professors”.

With the current budget crisis in most every state, how long will it be before this same approach filters down into secondary education? And what about primary education – that might take a bit longer but if a meaningful segment of the public can be convinced that home schooling with the help of on line instruction can provide a substantial primary education; then it too will become robotized.

Another question becomes – what happens once robots assume an overwhelming presence in the American job market? I have recently read that robots can work at lower cost than the cheapest overseas labor. They never take a sick day; they never go on break, no vacations, no pensions and no morale problems (and no unions)!  Some will say – yes but we will always need people to make the robots. Sorry – they can make themselves!  Yes but we will always need people to fix the robots. Sorry again – they fix themselves! We will always need people to program the robots. Sorry once more – once they are programmed the job is done and quite possibly they will be able to reprogram themselves when necessary (A.I.)!

The response to these points by many is “Great! That means people will have more leisure time and won’t have to work nearly as much”. We will all be able to reap the rewards of robotization. Not so fast – the people who will be working less and enjoying all the extra leisure time will not own the robots – they will be owned by wealthy corporations and individuals and I don’t believe they would be inclined to share the rewards the robots provide them with the society at large.

Well then who is going to pay all the part time workers and unemployed a full time salary? The government which is by enlarged controlled by the wealthy?  I am sure it will have no interest in making up the income lost by the unemployed and partly employed “leeches” who have been replaced by robots.

So now the robot age will have another startling, back door effect on education. If only a very few jobs will be left by robotization what kind of jobs will they be and what skills can be taught to allow people to obtain those remaining jobs? 

Additionally, if large numbers or workers are replaced by robots, what happens to the middle class and how will they be able to pay the taxes necessary to support the schools in the first place?

In summary it seems that an uncertain road lies ahead with respect to the rise of technology as it is related to the American and World economies. Even more disturbingly, I hear few if any politicians and leaders remarking on this topic much less suggesting solutions. 

The Mismeasurement of Education

I received this email yesterday and went to the website below. It was very interesting and I think you might also find it so !
The Mismeasurement of Education

What If ??

I found this article on page 7 of last week's Ledger.
If an incident like this occurred involving public school students, I wonder if it would be on page 7 ?
I kind of think it would be page 1 or possibly even show up in an editorial !Could it be that private schools are not all the bastions of  learning and decorum as they are portrayed? Maybe the Ledger doesn't want to do anything to burst the bubble ?

It Takes One to Know One!

As I told you recently, I sent an OPRA request to NJDOE for Bio information pertaining to the executive staff at NJDOE .

I wrote in my request:
“I AM REALLY INTERESTED IN THE LENGTH AND LOCATIONS OF THE TEACHING CAREERS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED”

What I received is contained below together with my comments after each bio.

What concerns me is what I have said before –

As Ross Perot once put it, when he was at Ford, and I paraphrase - "if managers are to do a good job they must once in a while go down to the factory floor and put a wheel on a car".

I find it difficult to understand how anyone without reasonable classroom experience in a public school setting can supervise and profess to tell others how teach. What do you think?




STAFF BIOS
Christopher Cerf – Acting Commissioner
Chris Cerf was sworn in as New Jersey’s Acting Commissioner of Education on January 18, 2011 following his nomination by Governor Christie. As Acting Commissioner, he oversees 2,500 public schools, 1.4 m Commissioner Cerf is committed to closing New Jersey’s academic achievement gap while substantially raising the achievement level of all New Jersey students. He is working to make New Jersey’s education system, already one of the best-performing systems
Prior to his appointment, Commissioner Cerf was the CEO of Sangari Global Education, which offers innovative education programming to more than 500,000 students worldwide. Between 2004 and 2009, he was Deputy Chancellor of the New York City Department of Education where he oversaw organizational strategy, innovation, labor relations and all matters pertaining to recruiting, supporting, developing and evaluating the nearly 80,000 teachers and 1,450 principals who serve the nation’s largest school district. He earlier served as Associate Counsel to President Clinton and as a partner in two Washington, D.C.,

(No teaching experience indicated)

Andy Smarick -- Deputy Commissioner
Previously Andy served as Deputy Assistant Secretary at the U.S. Department of Education and as an education aide at the White House. Prior positions also include: Chief Operating Officer for the National Alliance for Public Charter Schools, legislative assistant to a Member of the U.S. House of Representatives, and aide to members of the Maryland state legislature. Andy helped launch a college-preparatory charter school for underserved boys and girls in Annapolis, and he was a member of Maryland Governor’s Commission on Quality Education. His areas of research include school turnarounds, teacher quality, charter schools, performance pay, district reform, Catholic schools, and more. His articles have appeared in the Washington Post, Baltimore Sun, Boston Globe, Education Next, National Affairs, and other outlets. He is a former White House Fellow and member of the 2010-11 class of Aspen Institute-New Schools Fellows. He earned a bachelor’s degree, summa cum laude and with honors, and a master’s degree in public management from the University of Maryland

(No K thru 12 teaching experience indicated)




David Hespe – Chief of Staff In addition to serving as Chief of Staff for the NJDOE, David serves on the Governor’s Education Transformation Task Force, which was formed to review all statutes and regulations that affect public education, and recommend a new accountability system that grants more autonomy to schools while maintaining strict accountability for student achievement, safety, and fiscal responsibility. He also serves on the College and Career Readiness Task Force, comprised of K-12 and higher education practitioners and business community representatives.
Hespe is formerly the Co-Executive Director/Vice President for STEM Education at Liberty Science Center. Prior to that position he was the Interim Superintendent for the Willingboro School District having previously served as Assistant Superintendent. He was a faculty member in the Educational Leadership Department of Rowan University and served five years as department chair prior to becoming a school administrator. Hespe also served as Commissioner of Education for the State of New Jersey from 1999 through 2001. Prior to that position, he was the First Assistant Attorney General for the State of New Jersey. He also served as Assistant Commissioner of Education. Hespe began his service in the Executive Branch of State Government as Assistant Counsel for Education and Higher Education to Governor Whitman. Hespe also served in the Legislative Branch as Associate Counsel in the Education Section of the Office of Legislative Services where he was the Committee Aid to the Assembly Education and Higher Education Committee. Prior to that position, he was in the private practice of law. Hespe received both a Juris Doctor and a Bachelor of Arts degree from Rutgers University.

(No K thru 12 teaching experience indicated)



Penny MacCormack -- Chief Academic Officer/Assistant Commissioner of Standards, Assessment, and Curriculum
Penny MacCormack began her career in education as a teacher of high school science courses that included AP chemistry. A former teacher of the year, her career path has taken her through positions as dean, principal, and assistant superintendent in two urban districts – New Haven and Hartford, CT. Her latest assignment was as the Chief Academic Officer in Hartford, which is an urban district with 22,000 students and 2,100 certified staff in 50 schools. Penny is a recent graduate of the Broad Superintendents Academy and is now a Broad Fellow. She is also working on an Ed.D. in Educational Leadership from the University of Hartford.

(Length of teaching experience and teaching locations – public vs private – not indicated)



Peter Shulman -- Chief Talent Officer/Assistant Commissioner of Teacher and Leader Effectiveness
Peter Shulman joined the New Jersey Department of Education as the Chief Talent Officer on November 7, 2011. Peter has experience both at large urban school districts and a state education department. His work will center on helping to strengthen policy and practice around the recruitment, evaluation, development and retention of effective teachers and school leaders. Most recently, Peter led the Teacher Leader Effectiveness Unit at the Delaware Department of Education, where he oversaw the teacher and leader effectiveness initiatives that are part of Delaware's successful bid for a Race to the Top award. Peter also served in the School District of Philadelphia and the Miami-Dade County Public Schools in Florida, where he served as Administrative Director in Human Resources. He holds a bachelor degree in economics from the University of Michigan and an MBA from the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania. Peter will have a range of responsibility that includes overseeing our educator effectiveness work and rollout of the new teacher evaluation system. Peter will also spearhead work with graduate schools of education to ensure that their graduates are effectively prepared to achieve the mission of preparing all students in New Jersey to graduate from high school ready for college and career.

(No K thru 12 teaching experience indicated)




Bari Anhalt Erlichson -- Chief Performance Officer/Assistant Commissioner of Data, Research, Evaluation and Reporting
In the role of Chief Performance Officer,Bari oversees school and district performance and accountability, the development of the state’s student-level, longitudinal data system, and research and evaluation efforts. A former professor at Rutgers University, Dr. Erlichson has conducted research in many topic areas, including school reform, education policy implementation, school funding, and governance. She is a co-author of the book, Multiethnic Moments: the Politics of Urban Education Reform (Temple University Press, 2006) as well as a contributor to several edited volumes and journals. Prior to joining the NJDOE, she taught fifth grade in Plainfield, New Jersey after having been a student teacher in the Newark Public Schools. Dr. Erlichson holds a Ph.D. in political science from Stanford University, an M.A. in education administration and policy from the Stanford School of Education, and a B.A. from Dartmouth College.

(Length of K thru 12 teaching experience not indicated)




David Corso – Assistant Commissioner of Administration and Finance
Dave has been an employee of the Department of Education since 1992 and has served in several positions in the department. Dave was the Director of Administration and Human Resources from July 2002 until his appointment to Assistant Commissioner in July 2011. He was also the Director of Human Resources for 4 years and the Manager of the Bureau of Management Services for 7 years. In addition, he serves as the Department’s Ethics Liaison Officer, the Employee Relations Coordinator and the Emergency Management Coordinator. Dave began his state service in 1986 as a Budget and Program Analyst with the Department of Treasury, Office of Management and Budget. He then became Chief Fiscal and Administrative Officer at the Department of Insurance in 1990. He has over 25 years of public sector experience. Dave holds a B.S. in Business Management from St. Francis University in Loretto, PA and a Master of Public Administration (MPA) from Rutgers University. He has the following certificates: Certificate of Eligibility - School Business Administrator, Certified Public Manager, and Supervisory Management.

(No K thru 12 teaching experience indicated)



Barbara Gantwerk – Assistant Commissioner of Programs and Operations
Barbara Gantwerk began her work as a speech pathologist in Tel Aviv Israel where she worked at a treatment center for children with disabilities and established the first citywide screening program for speech and language disorders and taught at the University of Tel Aviv. Upon returning to the United States, she worked as a speech pathologist with children with disabilities. She began her career with the New Jersey State Department of Education in 1979 as the state consultant for speech and language services, and in 1994 she was appointed state director of the Office of Special Education, a position she held for 11 years. In 2006, Ms. Gantwerk was appointed to the position of Assistant Commissioner of the Division of Student Services. She is responsible for state and federal programs serving the needs of the student populations most at risk for educational problems. This includes: students with disabilities, economically disadvantaged students, homeless, migrant and Limited English Proficient students. Additionally, sh
e is responsible for student health services, school climate issues such as harassment intimidation and bullying and oversees the Katzenbach State School for the Deaf.

(No K thru 12 teaching experience indicated)

Learning Are Fun?

Everybody loves “show biz” but it aint cheap or easy.
Production costs of an average TV show run to about 3 million per hour and require dozens of highly paid people. Often the shows that result are poor or mediocre at best.
While some production companies have slashed production costs, the average
cost of a half-hour program grew from "$994,000 to $1,227,000 per episode,
or 23.4 percent, between 2000 and 2003 alone."*
. An hour of Big Brother cost $286,000 during the first season (it's more now). An average half hour of sitcom costs $1.3 million (add millions if it has a pampered cast like Friends').
The cost of production of a popular video game can run into the millions or tens of millions of dollars.
An now, teachers are expected to put on five or more “shows” a day using a piece of chalk and a chalkboard and make it entertaining as well as educational! If the lesson is “boring” and the children are not “engaged” the teacher is a “poor teacher”.
I have to say that in all my years of teaching, I never could find a way to make pH as interesting as “The Rolling Stones”!
Does this mean that teachers shouldn’t to try make learning a pleasant experience, of course not, but to expect the teacher to consistently make education “fun” is certainly an unrealistic demand.
The old cliché, “Learning is fun” is only partially true. The efforts required to learn are rarely fun. I doubt that I could find many young people who would rather do math homework than go to a Lady Gaga concert.
Learning is fun but only after a subject is learned via study and hard work because one can then feel a sense of accomplishment. The learning process itself however is usually not considered to be “fun”. That’s why they call it home ”work” and school “work” because if done properly, it is hard “work”.
It’s time that we stop expecting teachers to be entertainers and call them what they really are and should be, that is, conveyors of knowledge to the next generation.

*forbes.com

Unethical Ethics

I was elected to the Nutley Board of Education in 2007 and served a three year term. As a member of the BOE I was obliged to endure a yearly ethics training session presented by New Jersey School Boards Association.

            The presenter gave a complete discussion of the plethora of rules and regulations regarding BOE ethics. Now don’t get me wrong, I do think Board members should engage in ethical practices and ethical practices only, but it was the answer to my question at the end of the session that really irritated me. I have to say that I thought I knew the answer before I asked but I just had to ask anyway.

            I raised my hand and asked, “Do all these ethics procedures and regulations also apply to State Legislators, that is, State Assemblymen and State Senators?”

            There was a brief pause and then the answer which I had expected, “No!”.

            I said no more but I certainly did think about it a lot.

            I was watching 60 Minutes last Sunday and a piece about insider stock trading by Congressmen was shown. It immediately reminded me of the ethics rules situation I had encountered while on the BOE. 

Why? Because it seems that insider trading by Federal Legislators is perfectly ethical and not illegal based on the laws that are passed and applied to Congressman and their staff.

Meanwhile the commoners are subjected to strict prohibition from even a hint of  this activity (which well they should).

            Same old “stuff” – “All pigs are equal but some pigs are more equal than others” – Animal Farm – George Orwell.

            Is it unethical to apply stringent ethics regulations to others and not yourself?

What do you think?

Let's "Reform Tenure" and Keep Only the "Best Teachers"?

I read several articles today in the paper about tenure "reform". In general they want tenure to be renewed after a specified period (5 years or so) based on a variety of factors, most often the opinions of administrators.

  What this really means is that any teacher who gives poor grades to the wrong student (children of BOE members, prominent citizens or politicians, etc.) can look forward to losing tenure.

  Any teacher who stands up to an administrator (rightly or wrongly) can look forward to losing tenure.

  Any teacher who  teaches in an area were a connected person has a credential to teach in that area and needs a job, can look forward to losing tenure.

  Any teacher who has reached the top of the pay scale in an area were there are many job applicants can look forward to losing tenure.

  Any teacher whose politics doesn't align with those of his superiors can look forward to losing tenure.

  Any teacher who does not kiss ass on a regular basis can look forward to losing tenure.

"Tenure reform" are simply key words for firing teachers making a decent living and replacing them with lower pay help, opening the door for patronage even wider, insuring that children of selected people always do well and ridding the system of any descent what so ever.

What do you think?