Disregarding the Future of Employment

This article reflects the quality of our current leadership. Just as with climate change they refuse to acknowledge the obvious.  Evidence cited by the scientific community and even that which can be ready confirmed by simple observation is dismissed. Mr. Mnuchin, our Treasury Secretary claims that the effect of technology on employment is “50 to 100 years” away. It is not something to be reckoned with presently or in the immediate future.

Based on his statement, I must suppose that Mr. Mnuchin has never been to Home Depot or even the local supermarket. If he has how could he fail to see self-checkout “cashiers” acting under the auspice of one person rather than the six persons they have replaced? How can he not see an ATM as a machine replacing a bank teller? How can he not see the advent of self-driving vehicles replacing taxi drivers and trucker drivers? The list goes on and gets longer with every passing day.

Finally, if he really believes that automation of most all current jobs is “50 to 100 years” off, he has never heard of Moore’s Law and A.I.

It is truly unfortunate for us that we are governed by people with such little foresight and so much ignorance.

We must find leaders who will face the future and deal with it instead of just continually denying its ominous certainty. 

The original Moore's Law derives from a speech given by Gordon Moore, later a founder of Intel, in 1965, in which he observed that the number of microcomponents that could be placed in an integrated circuit (microchip) of the lowest manufacturing cost was doubling every year and that this trend would likely continue into the future. As this observation and prediction began to be frequently cited, it became known as Moore's Law. In later years, the Law was occasionally reformulated to mean that rate. The pace of change having slowed down a bit over the past few years, the definition has changed (with Gordon Moore's approval) to reflect that the doubling occurs only every 18 months.

Preparing for the Non Existent

Gigantic debt incurred by students preparing for jobs that probably won't exist.

Even "The Donald's" great promise to bring jobs back to America

can't stop this unless he's talking about bring jobs back to American

robots!! 

The Future of the Future

I hate to repeat myself (not really) but in light of the attached article I think it is appropriate. As you will see, all the fears of robots driving the population into the unemployment lines is clearly outlined. It certainly adds to my conjure about the future of the American work force. 

Most current discussions of retraining the unemployed and preparing the youth for new careers seems to center on developing STEM skills. Based on the attached article even these skills will likely be supplanted by robots equipped with A.I.

We have already seen cashiers replaced by self checkout robots, bank tellers replaced by ATMs, materials handlers at Amazon replaced by automatic merchandise selectors, draftsmen replaced by CAD programs, computers and the Internet substituted for teachers and the list goes on.  Based on Moore's Law the time in which complete robotization will be achieved becomes shorter and shorter (note- Moore's Law tells us that computing power doubles every 18 months and so far it seems to be correct). It appears that no one and no career or profession is or will be immune.

And what should young people be learning to ensure a place in the future workforce? How should the unemployed be retrained so that they don't wind up re-unemployed?

One might suggest that only the trades will be safe havens - but I'm not so sure. The use of nail guns and engineered lumber has allowed a smaller crew to do the same amount of work in a shorter time than  just a decade or two ago. 

Plumber's now use PVC pipe and snap on fittings again reducing the time to complete a job.

Electrical work can now easily be done by the homeowner in many cases by using remote, wireless switches and relays. The result is fewer job for electrical tradesmen. The list goes on and gets longer by the day.

The recent murders in Paris and California helped to bring all of this to mind once again. I have read just recently that one of the greatest recruiting tools used by ISIS is the offer of a job (as shitty as it is I guess they think it is better than no job) to the myriad of Middle Eastern unemployed youth. From what I've read theyoffer good pay (from oil money) and benefits besides!

Based on this observation, what can we look forward to in America when most jobs have been eliminated? 

Maybe it's time for our politicians to start addressing this issue rather than just attacking each other at their sideshow events??

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 Here my previous article on robots and employment in you are interested. Below is the article I made mention of in my opening line. 

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8/14/15

A collision between robotization and student loan debt is inevitability on course. Tens of thousands of students are now being prepared for jobs that will soon be replaced by robots and A.I.(owned by corporations and the wealthy). An even sadder part is that they are incurring trillions of dollars of debt to become eligible for the non-existent jobs of the future. (See my post  - http://teachersdontsuck.blogspot.com/2015/07/i-robots.html). 

Not only will they have the prospect of few available jobs but also the burden of huge debt which they will have no means to repay. 

How will the housing market endure? Who will buy the new "driver-less" cars? Will the middle classes' disappearing act finally be completed?

Might these be bigger problems than even terrorism for the capitalist system in the not too distant future?

Even less encouraging is that I have heard few it any politicians addressing the likelihood of these probable circumstances and how they should be addressed?

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The Consequences of Technology in Education and Elsewhere

I recently wrote an article (June 2015) http://teachersdontsuck.blogspot.com/2015/07/i-robots.html about the rise of robots. Here are some of the things which I mentioned.

"Another question becomes – what happens once robots assume an overwhelming presence in the American job market?"

"Not so fast (with your applause) – the people who will be working less and enjoying all the extra leisure time (unemployment) will not own the robots – they will be owned by wealthy corporations and individuals and I don’t believe they will be inclined to share the rewards the robots provide with the society at large."

"So now the robotic age will have another startling, back door effect on education. If only a very few jobs will be left by robotization what kind of jobs will they be and what skills can be taught to allow people to obtain those remaining jobs?"

The other night I viewed a piece on NJN News which provides an example validating my observations about the ever increasing rise of technology and the threats it carries. Here is that clip.

Video Note:
An interesting point about the influence of technology on the automobile repair business is, that starting way back in the 80s, manufacturers began  producing vehicles which required specialized tools for repairing each model. The result was the independent shop owner had to buy a myriad to tools to stay in business.Many were driven out of business by these increased costs. But that was not the end of car manufacturers attempts to eliminate their competitors.
With the advent of computer run vehicles, manufacturers no longer have to develop and produce manufactured parts needing special tools. Now, all they need do is write a few lines software code to box out independent competition for good!

Is Anybody Looking Down the Tracks?

  A collision between robotization and student loan debt is inevitability on course. Tens of thousands of students are now being prepared for jobs that will soon be replaced by robots and A.I.(owned by corporations and the wealthy). An even sadder part is that they are incurring trillions of dollars of debt to become eligible for the non-existent jobs of the future. (See my post  - http://teachersdontsuck.blogspot.com/2015/07/i-robots.html). 

Not only will they have the prospect of few available jobs but also the burden of huge debt which they will have no means to repay. 

How will the housing market endure? Who will buy the new "driver-less" cars? Will the middle classes' disappearing act finally be  completed?

Might these be bigger problems than even terrorism for the capitalist system in the not too distant future?

Even less encouraging is that I have heard few it any politicians addressing the likelihood of these probable circumstances and how they should be addressed?

I Robots

Here is an insert from an article which I read in Sunday’s newspaper. It shows the likelihood of jobs being replaced by robots in the near future. I noticed that elementary school teaching was listed near the bottom.  Now I emphasized elementary because I believe the advent of robotization certainly does apply to secondary and college teaching. Upper level teachers are already being replaced by a robot called the Internet. I hear ads over and over about “On Line Degrees” from a plethora of colleges and universities. A single Internet course can serve dozens if not hundreds of student and be operated by just a few individual “professors”.

With the current budget crisis in most every state, how long will it be before this same approach filters down into secondary education? And what about primary education – that might take a bit longer but if a meaningful segment of the public can be convinced that home schooling with the help of on line instruction can provide a substantial primary education; then it too will become robotized.

Another question becomes – what happens once robots assume an overwhelming presence in the American job market? I have recently read that robots can work at lower cost than the cheapest overseas labor. They never take a sick day; they never go on break, no vacations, no pensions and no morale problems (and no unions)!  Some will say – yes but we will always need people to make the robots. Sorry – they can make themselves!  Yes but we will always need people to fix the robots. Sorry again – they fix themselves! We will always need people to program the robots. Sorry once more – once they are programmed the job is done and quite possibly they will be able to reprogram themselves when necessary (A.I.)!

The response to these points by many is “Great! That means people will have more leisure time and won’t have to work nearly as much”. We will all be able to reap the rewards of robotization. Not so fast – the people who will be working less and enjoying all the extra leisure time will not own the robots – they will be owned by wealthy corporations and individuals and I don’t believe they would be inclined to share the rewards the robots provide them with the society at large.

Well then who is going to pay all the part time workers and unemployed a full time salary? The government which is by enlarged controlled by the wealthy?  I am sure it will have no interest in making up the income lost by the unemployed and partly employed “leeches” who have been replaced by robots.

So now the robot age will have another startling, back door effect on education. If only a very few jobs will be left by robotization what kind of jobs will they be and what skills can be taught to allow people to obtain those remaining jobs? 

Additionally, if large numbers or workers are replaced by robots, what happens to the middle class and how will they be able to pay the taxes necessary to support the schools in the first place?

In summary it seems that an uncertain road lies ahead with respect to the rise of technology as it is related to the American and World economies. Even more disturbingly, I hear few if any politicians and leaders remarking on this topic much less suggesting solutions.